Research Finder
Find by Keyword
Five Key Trends to Expect in the Mainframe Space in 2025
It's that time of the year and before we all break for the Holidays its time for 2025 predictions. What many see as a sleepy technology, the mainframe is set for another year of permanence and relevance.
61 years into the history of the Mainframe, 2025 promises to be a landmark year for this cornerstone of enterprise computing. As we move forward, five key trends stand out to me and will most likely be pivotal in shaping the future of the mainframe in 2025 and the years to come. From open-source advancements to the emergence of AI-driven solutions, startups making their mark, and long-standing challenges being addressed, the year ahead holds exciting developments.
Open Source Finally Takes Hold
For over a decade, the Open Mainframe Project (OMP) has been working to bring open-source principles to the mainframe ecosystem. I had the pleasure of birthing this project in 2015 with the patient guidance of the Linux Foundation and was honoured to be the project’s first board chair. 2025 may be the year when the efforts of the OMP finally bear substantial fruit. Projects like Zowe, the first open-source framework for z/OS, have gained significant traction over the years, with Broadcom now offering free support to its clients using Zowe. It is becoming time for mainstream adoption. This move signals a broader commitment to open-source collaboration within the traditionally closed mainframe community.
Other open-source initiatives, such as Galasa; a framework for automated testing on mainframes are also gaining momentum. These projects are reshaping how enterprises think about integrating mainframes into their hybrid IT environments. By enabling developers to work seamlessly across platforms, open-source tools are bridging gaps between legacy systems and modern technologies.
Another sleeper hit for the mainframe community is Open Telemetry (OTel) adoption by the mainframe community. With Broadcom’s WatchTower adopting the open source approach to agents and observability ‘plumbing’ I expect further adoption in 2025. Thai will be crucial in fixing a long term blind spot for the platform, its isolation into wider company wide observability, ITSM and service management frameworks. This translates into the mainframe being a remote island needing special skills, OTel will change this and this good for both the SRE community and mainframes alike.
The growing adoption of open source within the mainframe community reflects a larger cultural shift. Enterprises are beginning to embrace the flexibility and innovation that open-source provides, recognizing their potential to reduce costs, improve interoperability, and attract new talent.While this has long been obvious in the cloud it has taken longer to take hold in the mainframe space. In 2025, the open-source movement is finally set to become a mainstream force in the mainframe world, fundamentally altering how these systems are developed, managed, and extended - and it's LONG overdue.
AI Everywhere: Modernization Supercharged
2024 was the year of AI for the wider industry, and 2025 is set to be the year when AI is poised to revolutionize mainframe operations and modernization efforts in 2025. The use of AI for tasks like code description, explanation, and optimization is already making waves. Tools such as IBM’s watsonx Code Assistant for Z, BMC’s AMI Assistant and AWS most recent Q based developer tools exemplify how AI can simplify the modernization process by automating code refactoring, generating documentation, and analyzing complex dependencies.
Beyond modernization, AI is set to redefine operations. AIOps, or Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations, is gaining traction as enterprises seek to enhance system performance, reliability, and security. By leveraging machine learning to detect anomalies, predict system failures, and automate routine tasks, AIOps tools promise to make mainframe environments more resilient and efficient. Broadcom has already lent in hard, as has BMC and I expect this trend to continue across the mainframe landscape.
Generative AI will play a critical role in 2025. As LLM’s become more capable of understanding COBOL, JCL, PL/1 and other mainframe languages, they will accelerate modernization projects, enabling organizations to move legacy workloads to cloud-native architectures or hybrid environments with unprecedented speed and precision. I will be tracking the Zorse project however, as I am yet to be fully convinced that enough COBOL exists ‘in the wild’ for the AI models to train against.
I do remain bullish though that the convergence of AI and mainframes will signal a new era of innovation, unlocking opportunities to modernize without compromising the reliability and performance that mainframes have long been known for.
Startups Bring New Energy to the Space
While established players like IBM, Rocket Software, Broadcom, and BMC dominate the mainframe market, a wave of startups is bringing fresh ideas and innovation to the space. Companies such as PopUp, Mechanical Orchard, and AveriSource are challenging traditional approaches and introducing new tools and services that make mainframes more accessible and adaptable.
PopUp, for example, is democratizing how organizations test and deploy mainframe applications, offering flexible and cost-effective solutions. A heavily funded, but yet unproven, Mechanical Orchard focuses on application modernization, hoping to help businesses transform legacy systems into modern, cloud-native applications. Meanwhile, AveriSource is leveraging AI and advanced analytics to automate code discovery, refactoring, and migration, addressing key pain points in mainframe modernization projects.
The growing prominence of startups in the mainframe ecosystem reflects a broader trend toward innovation and agility that is somewhat unheard of in recent years. These newcomers are not only enhancing the capabilities of mainframes but also demonstrating their relevance in a rapidly changing IT landscape. As startups continue to push boundaries, they are likely to play a crucial role in shaping the future of mainframes, attracting new talent, and potentially more businesses to follow and driving greater adoption of cutting-edge technologies.
A New Box: The Arrival of IBM’s Latest Mainframe
IBM’s mainframe roadmap has been a reliable indicator of technological progress in the enterprise computing space, and 2025 will be no exception. The anticipated replacement of the z16 with the next-generation mainframe, powered by the Telum II processor, is set to make headlines. Any close watcher of the mainframe space can predict we are due a new system, with IBm relying on the same playbooks from z16 where it announced the processor and then the full systems a few months later. We can also expect a new LinuxONE based on the Telum II processor.
Telum II represents a significant leap forward, with enhanced AI capabilities embedded directly into the chip. This integration will enable real-time fraud detection, predictive analytics, and other AI-driven workloads to run natively on the mainframe without additional hardware or latency. The new system is also expected to feature advancements in security, scalability, and energy efficiency, reinforcing the mainframe’s position as the backbone of mission-critical applications.
The release of a new mainframe always generates excitement within the enterprise community, and the 2025 launch will likely be no different. With its focus on AI and hybrid cloud integration, the new system will appeal to organizations looking to modernize while maintaining the unparalleled reliability and performance that mainframes offer.
It is less clear for me at least what the new LinuxONE 5(?) will bring to the market, I am expecting IBM to double down on sustainability, but can we expect to see more in the digital assets space? I for one will be tracking the LinuxONE closely as this is a fast growing part of the overall IBM Infrastructure portfolio and perhaps surprisingly to sum one of IBM’s fastest growing products, with the system having grown from modest beginnings in 2015 to a multi-hundred dollar contributor over the last decade. Worthy of a tenth birthday celebration in 2025, I sure hope so.
Finally The End of Skills Shortages?
For years, the mainframe industry has grappled with a persistent skills shortage as experienced professionals retire and younger generations gravitate toward newer technologies. However, 2025 could mark a turning point as long-term efforts to address this challenge begin to yield results.
IBM, Broadcom, and other industry leaders have invested heavily in training programs, academic partnerships, and community initiatives to build a new pipeline of mainframe talent. Programs like IBM’s IBM Z Xplore Learning Platform (formerly known as Master the Mainframe) and Broadcom’s wider Beyond Code push and its Mainframe Academy are equipping students and early-career professionals with the skills needed to manage and innovate on mainframe platforms.
The adoption of modern development tools and open-source frameworks has also made mainframes more accessible to developers accustomed to working with cloud-native and open-source technologies. By lowering barriers to entry, these efforts are attracting a more diverse and tech-savvy workforce. It's a good time to get into the mainframe, never has the tech been so easy to understand and the wages for new entrants been so high.
In addition, AI-driven tools that simplify complex tasks are reducing the skill gap. This trend will reduce the time to onboard and make it easier for new entrants to master the platform. With automated code analysis, documentation generation, and operational insights, even less experienced professionals can contribute effectively to mainframe projects. As these trends converge, the narrative around mainframe skills shortages may finally shift from a pressing need for new talent to a more ‘normal’ posture.
2025 Is Set To Be A Banner Year For The Mainframe
The mainframe space is entering a dynamic and transformative phase, with 2025 shaping up to be a year of significant progress and innovation led by the advent of a new high end system powered by Tellum II and an intriguing Spyre accelerator. The rise of open source, the proliferation of AI-driven solutions, the emergence of vibrant startups, the debut of IBM’s next-generation mainframe, and the resolution of skills shortages all point to a bright future for this critical technology.
As these trends unfold, enterprises will have more opportunities than ever to harness the power of mainframes to drive innovation, enhance resilience, and achieve their business goals. The mainframe, far from being a relic of the past, is poised to play a central role in the future of enterprise IT, evolving to meet the demands of an increasingly digital and interconnected world.
Steven Dickens | CEO HyperFRAME Research
Regarded as a luminary at the intersection of technology and business transformation, Steven Dickens is the CEO and Principal Analyst at HyperFRAME Research.
Ranked consistently among the Top 10 Analysts by AR Insights and a contributor to Forbes, Steven's expert perspectives are sought after by tier one media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal and CNBC, and he is a regular on TV networks including the Schwab Network and Bloomberg.